COSMO-CLM2: a new version of the COSMO-CLM model coupled to the Community Land Model     

Edouard L. Davin  Reto St?ckli  Eric B. Jaeger  Samuel Levis  Sonia I. Seneviratne 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(9-10):1889-1907

This study presents an evaluation of a new biosphere-atmosphere Regional Climate Model. COSMO-CLM² results from the coupling between the non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM version 4.0 and the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5). In this coupling, CLM3.5 replaces a simpler land surface parameterization (TERRA_ML) used in the standard COSMO-CLM. Compared to TERRA_ML, CLM3.5 comprises a more complete representation of land surface processes including hydrology, biogeophysics, biogeochemistry and vegetation dynamics. Historical climate simulations over Europe with COSMO-CLM and with the new COSMO-CLM² are evaluated against various data products. The simulated climate is found to be substantially affected by the coupling with CLM3.5, particularly in summer. Radiation fluxes as well as turbulent fluxes at the surface are found to be more realistically represented in COSMO-CLM². This subsequently leads to improvements of several aspects of the simulated climate (cloud cover, surface temperature and precipitation). We show that a better partitioning of turbulent fluxes is the central factor allowing for the better performances of COSMO-CLM² over COSMO-CLM. Despite these improvements, some model deficiencies still remain, most notably a substantial underestimation of surface net shortwave radiation. Overall, these results highlight the importance of land surface processes in shaping the European climate and the benefit of using an advanced land surface model for regional climate simulations.  相似文献   

The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sybren S. Drijfhout  Susanne L. Weber  Eric van der Swaluw 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(7-8):1575-1586

The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated for various climate scenario runs, using data from the CMIP3 archive of coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Apart from atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the salt flux into the Atlantic basin that is carried by the MOC determines whether the MOC is in the single or multiple equilibria regime. This salt advection feedback is analyzed by diagnosing the freshwater and salt budgets for the combined Atlantic and Arctic basins. Consistent with the finding that almost all coupled climate models recover from hosing experiments, it is found that most models feature a negative salt advection feedback in their pre-industrial climate: freshwater perturbations are damped by this feedback, excluding the existence of a stable off-state for the MOC. All models feature enhanced evaporation over the Atlantic basin in future climates, but for a moderate increase in radiative forcing (B1 and 2 CO₂ scenarios), there is a decrease of the fresh water flux carried by the MOC into the Atlantic (the deficit is made up by increased fresh water transport by the gyre circulation). In this forcing regime the salt advection feedback becomes less negative: for three models from an ensemble of eight it is positive in a 2 CO₂ climate, while two models feature a positive feedback in the pre-industrial climate. For even warmer climates (A1B-equilibrium and 4 CO₂) the salt feedback becomes more negative (damping) again. It is shown that the decrease in northward fresh water transport at 34°S by the MOC (in B1-equilibrium and 2 CO₂) is due to a reduction of the inflow of intermediate waters relative to thermocline waters, associated with a robust shoaling of the MOC in future, warmer climates. In A1B and 4 CO₂ climates northward freshwater transport increases again. The MOC keeps shoaling, but both intermediate and thermocline water masses freshen.  相似文献   

Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Eric Neumayer  Fabian Barthel 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):13-24

Climate change is likely to lead to an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of certain types of natural hazards, if not globally, then at least in certain regions. All other things equal, this should lead to an increase in the economic toll from natural disasters over time. Yet, all other things are not equal since affected areas become wealthier over time and rational individuals and governments undertake defensive mitigation measures, which requires normalizing economic losses if one wishes to analyze trends in economic loss from natural disasters for detecting a potential climate change signal. In this article, we argue that the conventional methodology for normalizing economic loss is problematic since it normalizes for changes in wealth over time, but fails to normalize for differences in wealth across space at any given point of time. We introduce an alternative methodology that overcomes this problem in theory, but faces many more problems in its empirical application. Applying, therefore, both methods to the most comprehensive existing global dataset of natural disaster loss, in general we find no significant upward trends in normalized disaster damage over the period 1980-2009 globally, regionally, for specific disasters or for specific disasters in specific regions. Due to our inability to control for defensive mitigation measures, one cannot infer from our analysis that there have definitely not been more frequent and/or more intensive weather-related natural hazards over the study period already. Moreover, it may still be far too early to detect a trend if human-induced climate change has only just started and will gain momentum over time.  相似文献   

Common property rights, adaptive capacity, and response to forest disturbance   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Eric A. Coleman 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):855-865

This paper reports the results of a statistical analysis which measures the effects of adaptive capacity on forest conditions in response to a prior disturbance. Particular emphasis is placed on common property rights as a form of institutional adaptive capacity. Common property rights are delineated in terms of rights of access, withdrawal, management, exclusion, and alienation. Using statistical analysis of 326 forest user groups from 13 countries in the database of the International Forestry Resources and Institutions (IFRI) program, the effects on user group rankings of forest conditions are estimated with a probability model. Overall, the results indicate that user groups with more complete property rights are more likely to rank forest conditions favorably. However, the effects of property rights also depend on the level of other forms of adaptive capacity such as the organizational capacity of the group and the number of rival user groups.  相似文献   

Deriving fault-slip histories to test for secular variation in slip,with examples from the Kunlun and Awatere faults     

Ryan D. Gold  Eric Cowgill 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(1-2):52-64

Although offset and age data from displaced landforms are essential for identifying earthquake clusters and thus testing whether faults slip at uniform or secularly varying rates, it is not clear how the uncertainties in such measurements should be propagated so as to yield a robust fault-slip history (i.e., record of fault displacement over time). Here we develop a Monte Carlo approach for estimating the distribution of geologically reasonable fault-slip histories that fit the offset and age data from a population of dated and displaced landforms. The model assumes that the landforms share common faulting histories, the offset and age constraints are correct, and the fault has not reversed shear sense. Analysis of the model results yields both a precise average slip rate, in the case where a linear fit is applied to the data, and a best-fit fault-slip history, in the case where the linear constraint is removed. The method can be used to test for secular variation in slip because the uncertainty on this best-fit history is quantified. By applying the method to previously published morphochronologic data from faulted late Quaternary terrace risers along the Kunlun fault in China and the Awatere fault in New Zealand, we have assessed the extent to which our modeled average slip rates match previously reported values and the data support previous interpretations of uniform slip rate. The Kunlun data set yields average slip rates of 8.7 + 3.6/?2.1 mm/yr and 5.1 + 1.6/?1.2 mm/yr (68.27% confidence), for the central and eastern reaches of the fault, respectively, both of which match previously published slip rates. Our analysis further indicates that these fault reaches have both slipped uniformly over the latest Quaternary. In contrast, analysis of data from the Saxton River site along the Awatere fault reveals a mid-Holocene deceleration in slip rate from 6.2 + 1.6/?1.4 mm/yr to 2.8 + 1.0/?0.6 mm/yr. This result contradicts previous interpretations of uniform slip along the Awatere fault. The Monte Carlo method we present here for quantifying fault-slip histories using the offset and age data from a population of faulted landforms provides an important tool for distinguishing temporally uniform from secularly varying fault slip.  相似文献   

Book Review
Rogue Waves in the Ocean. Advances in Geophysical and Environmental Mechanics and Mathematics, by Christian Kharif, Efim Pelinovsky and Alexey Slunyaev, Springer, 2009; ISBN: 978-3-540-88418-7, USD 149.00     

Eric L. Geist 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(10):1891

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Variability in erosion rates related to the state of landscape transience in the semi‐arid Chilean Andes     

Germán Aguilar  Rodrigo Riquelme  Joseph Martinod  José Darrozes  Eric Maire 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(13):1736-1748

We quantify erosion rates in the higher sectors of the Huasco Valley, in the Main Cordillera of the semi‐arid Andes of Chile, using elevation differences between three successive geomorphic markers (pediments and paleo‐valleys) and the present day valley. Available Ar‐Ar ages of Neogene pediments are used to estimate mean erosion rates for the three periods (16 to 13 My, 13 to 8 My, and following 8 My). The landscape of the Huasco Valley is in a transient state, as indicated by well‐preserved pediment surfaces in interfluves, valleys deeply incised by fluvial and glacial erosion and scarped head‐valleys that represent the current knickzones. Higher erosion rates (45–75 m/My) are calculated for the more recent period (< 8 My) during which deep incision developed compared to previous periods (6–31 m/My). Quantitative data indicate that glaciers had a much higher erosional capability than fluvial activity in the higher sectors of the Main Cordillera. Comparison with erosion rates calculated in other drainage basins of the Chilean Andes suggests that the variability of erosion rates depends on the landscape's transient erosive state. The landscape's geomorphologic response to the uplift of the Main Cordillera results in the retreat of a knickzone, for which retreat velocity depends on precipitation rate pattern and glacial erosion intensity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Craig A. Lockard,Southeast Asia in World History     

Eric Thompson 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2011,32(3):399-400

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Large-Scale Structures over a Single Street Canyon Immersed in an Urban-Type Boundary Layer   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Laurent Perret  Eric Savory 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,148(1):111-131

An analysis of the dynamics of the flow over a street canyon immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer is presented, using particle image velocimetry measurements in a wind tunnel. Care was taken to generate a 1:200 model scale urban type boundary layer that is correctly scaled to the size of the canyon buildings. Using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of the velocity field and conditional averaging techniques, it is first shown that the flow above the opening of the canyon consists of a shear layer separating from the upstream obstacle, animated by a coherent flapping motion and generating large-scale vortical structures. These structures are alternately injected into the canyon or shed off the obstacle into the outer flow. It is shown that unsteady fluid exchanges between the canyon and the outer flow are mainly driven by the shear layer. Finally, using POD, the non-linear interaction between the large-scale structures of the oncoming atmospheric boundary layer and the flow over the canyon is demonstrated.  相似文献   

Investigation of the Flow Structure in Step-Up Street Canyons—Mean Flow and Turbulence Statistics     

Bhagirath Addepalli  Eric R. Pardyjak 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,148(1):133-155

A step-up street canyon is a characteristic urban element composed of two buildings in which the height of the upwind building ( $H_\mathrm{u}$ ) is less than the height of the downwind building ( $H_\mathrm{d}$ ). Here, the effect of canyon geometry on the flow structure in isolated step-up street canyons is investigated through isothermal wind-tunnel measurements. The measurements were acquired along the vertical symmetry plane of model buildings using two-dimensional particle image velocimetry (PIV) for normal approach flow. The building-height ratios considered were: $H_\mathrm{d}/ H_\mathrm{u} \approx 3$ , and $H_\mathrm{d}/ H_\mathrm{u} \approx 1.67$ . For each building-height ratio, the along-wind lengths (L) of the upwind and downwind buildings, and the street-canyon width (S) were kept constant, with $L \approx S$ . The cross-wind widths (W) of the upwind and downwind buildings were varied uniformly from $W/S \approx 1$ through $W/S \approx 4$ , in increments of $W/S \approx 1$ . The objective of the work was to characterize the changes in the flow structure in step-up canyons as a function of W/S, for fixed L, S, and $H_\mathrm{d}/H_\mathrm{u}$ values. The results indicate that the in-canyon flow structure does not vary significantly for $H_\mathrm{d}/H_\mathrm{u} \approx 3$ for the W/S values considered. Qualitatively, for $H_\mathrm{d}/H_\mathrm{u} \approx 3$ , the upwind building behaves as an obstacle in the upwind cavity of the downwind building. In contrast, the flow patterns observed for the $H_\mathrm{d}/H_\mathrm{u} \approx 1.67$ configurations are unique and counter-intuitive, and depend strongly on building width (W/S). For $W/S \approx 1$ and $W/S \approx 2$ , the effect of lateral flow into the canyon is so prominent that even the mean flow patterns are highly ambiguous. For $W/S \approx 3$ and 4, the flow along the vertical symmetry plane is more shielded from the lateral flow, and hence a stable counter-rotating vortex pair is observed in the canyon. In addition to these qualitative features, a quantitative analysis of the mean flow field and turbulence stress field is presented.  相似文献